The immigration debate: policies and perceptions in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

The immigration debate: policies and perceptions in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, immigration remains a central theme. Former President Donald Trump advocates for mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, restricting entry for refugees and asylum seekers, reinstating the Remain in Mexico program, expanding the border wall, and reducing worker visas. He also proposes banning entry from Muslim-majority countries and ending DACA protections, which offers protection from deportation and a work permit, requiring renewal every two years, as a path to citizenship for individuals who were under 16 when they were brought into the U.S. illegally by their parents before June 15, 2012.

Vice President Kamala Harris supports reforms aligned with the Biden administration’s policies. Her agenda includes tightening asylum restrictions and enhancing border security, and emphasizes creating legal pathways to citizenship and protecting DACA recipients. 

The economic impact of the candidates' proposals

According to a Gallup poll from October 2024, 21% of Americans view immigration as the most pressing non-economic concern. A joint study by Brookings, AEI, and the Niskanen Center analyzed high- and low-immigration scenarios under each candidate’s plan and found that net immigration would be far higher under Harris’s policies, with a forecasted net migration of 3.7 million in 2025 vs. Trump’s forecasted net migration of 740,000.

Such differences in immigration levels would directly impact economic growth. Harris’s policies could expand the labor force and boost GDP, while Trump’s measures could reduce GDP growth by as much as half a percentage point in 2025 alone—equivalent to about $130 billion. A Peterson Institute study warns that mass deportations under Trump’s plan would create inflationary pressures by shrinking the labor supply, driving up the cost of goods and services by several percentage points annually throughout his second term.

Expanding legal immigration, as Harris proposes, could address labor shortages in key sectors without negatively affecting native-born employment. Research by economists Giovanni Peri and Alessandro Caiumi showed that immigration raised wages for less-educated U.S.-born workers by between 1.7 and 2.6% between 2000 and 2019, and had no significant negative impact on employment among college-educated natives.

Are immigrants good or bad for the economy?

Immigrants play a critical role in driving economic growth, entrepreneurship, and innovation, as they are substantially more likely to start businesses than native-born individuals with similar characteristics. About half of all Fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants or their children, and such contributions fuel the economy by creating jobs and boosting productivity.

Additionally, immigrants contribute more in federal income and payroll taxes than they receive in federal benefits, further strengthening public finances. Immigration also helps control inflation by increasing labor market flexibility, making the economy more responsive to shifts in demand.

While the federal government reaps the long-term rewards of immigration through income taxes, states and local communities face the immediate financial and cultural burden of absorbing new arrivals. This misalignment creates resistance to immigration at the local level; however, some economists have suggested federal transfers to states and municipalities to provide the support needed to manage short-term costs, making communities more receptive to immigration.

Americans' attitudes on immigration policies and misconceptions

About 47% of Americans support deporting all undocumented immigrants, broken out as 84% of Republicans and 22% of Democrats. Attitudes also differ on asylum and border security policies, with Democrats favoring more lenient approaches and Republicans pushing for stricter controls. Despite these divisions, there is broad recognition across the political spectrum that the U.S. immigration system requires reform to better balance enforcement and economic opportunity.

Overstating border enforcement at the expense of immigration policy reform fosters public frustration, creating opposition not just to illegal immigration but to immigration in general. However, the U.S. economy depends on immigrants to sustain labor force growth and innovation, which are essential to long-term prosperity. Comprehensive immigration reform is necessary to address both border concerns and broader economic needs, yet the polarization of public opinion makes such reform difficult to achieve.

Worsening polarization, several misconceptions about immigration have circulated on social media, including the claim that immigrants take jobs away from native-born Americans, but data shows otherwise. Research from the Hamilton Project revealed that native-born employment increased by 740,000 in 2023, correcting earlier survey errors that had inaccurately reported a decline of 190,000 jobs.

Another common misconception among Americans blames immigrants for rising housing prices. However, research indicates that stricter immigration enforcement, which reduces both documented and undocumented workers in construction, has contributed to the problem by slowing down residential development. Shortages of construction labor reduce the supply of new homes, driving up prices. Expanding immigration, especially in sectors like construction, could help alleviate labor shortages and improve housing affordability.

What does true “comprehensive immigration reform” look like?

Ultimately, the U.S. needs comprehensive immigration reform that addresses both border security and the economic contributions of immigrants. This requires more than just executive actions—it demands Congressional legislation that balances enforcement with economic opportunity. Federal support for states and communities, along with expanded legal immigration pathways, could help ensure that the U.S. continues to thrive as a nation built on diversity, innovation, and opportunity.

Authored by 

Mario Macis, Professor of Economics

Mario Macis (Ph.D.) is a professor of economics at the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School. He is also Core Faculty at the Hopkins Business of Health Initiative (HBHI), Affiliate Faculty at the JHU Berman Institute of Bioethics, and Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and the Institute of Labor Economics (IZA, Bonn). Between 2016 and 2019, he served as Academic Program Director of Carey's MS in Health Care Management.